Massouda Sidiqi, Sangam Shrestha
Department of Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, Water Engineering and Management, School of Engineering and
Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand
*Corresponding author email: sangam@ait.asia
Received on: January 23, 2021 Accepted on: April 26, 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.47884/jweam.v2i1pp01-21
ABSTRACT
Climate change and variability affect the availability and management of water resources and the hydrologicalcycle, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. This research was conducted to analyse the impact of climatechange on the hydrology of the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan by using the outputs of three General CirculationModels under two representative concentration pathway scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future climate data(precipitation and temperature) obtained from the climate models were bias-corrected using the delta changeapproach. Maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation were predicted for the three future periods:2020s (2010–2039), 2050s (2040–2069), and 2080s (2070–2099) against the baseline period 1961–1980. Theo o omean annual temperature in the basin is projected to increase by 1.8 C, 3.5 C, and 4.8 C in the 2020s, 2050s, and2080s, respectively. The projected annual precipitation is expected to decline by approximately 53 to 65% for thewhole river basin under both scenarios in the future period. The well-calibrated and validated Soil WaterAssessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the future streamflow in the basin. The mean annual streamflowis projected to increase by 50 to 120% in the future. This study provides valuable information for guiding futurewater resource management in the Kabul River Basin and other arid and semi-arid regions of Afghanistan.
Keywords: Climate change; Streamflow; RCPs. SWAT; Kabul River Basin